ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
CNOBdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $19.85 and $35.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $301.7M1 | $373.7M2 | $490.1M3 | $517.9M3 | $644.9M3 |
| Net income | $130.4M4 | $125.2M5 | $87M6 | $73.8M6 | $80.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $202.3M7 | $176.8M8 | $92.9M9 | $60.7M9 | $106.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $2.78M10 | $3.3M11 | $7.43M12 | $3.79M12 | $5.39M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $199.5M7 | $173.5M8 | $85.5M9 | $56.9M9 | $101M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $265.5M13 | $268.3M14 | $242.7M15 | $356.5M16 | $380.9M16 |
| Diluted shares | 39.9M | 39.5M | 39.0M | 38.5M | 45.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $346.44 of net worth that earned you $17.71 and generated $22.24 of cash last year.
It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $19.85 and $35.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$85.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$85.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$87M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $35.27 |
| Base | 0.0% | $35.27 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $41.78 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005370 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004744 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005320 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005370 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004744 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005320 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005370 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004744 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005320 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005370 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004744 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005320 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-004537 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-005370 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-004744 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-005320 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)