MeritValue

CNO Financial Group, Inc.

CNOdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

CNO Financial Group, Inc. earns about 53% on invested capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $43.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.12B1$3.58B2$4.15B3$4.45B3$4.49B3
Net income$570.3M4$630.6M5$276.5M6$420.8M6$229.3M6
Operating cash flow$598.3M7$495.4M8$582.9M9$627.7M9$675.7M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$731.7M10$644.9M11$889M11$2B11$983.5M11
Diluted shares131.1M117.7M115.1M108.1M99.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$264.29
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$22.97
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $264.29 of net worth that earned you $22.97 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
53% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 66%FY23 35%FY24 120%FY25 25%

It earned an average 53% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$43.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$420.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001224608-24-000009 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001224608-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001224608-26-000017 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001224608-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001224608-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001224608-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001224608-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001224608-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001224608-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001224608-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001224608-26-000017 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)