MeritValue

CONMED Corp

CNMDdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CONMED Corp earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $20.81 and $290.21 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.01B1$1.05B2$1.24B3$1.31B3$1.37B3
Net income$62.5M4−$80.6M5$64.5M6$132.4M6$47.1M6
Operating cash flow$111.8M7$33.4M8$125.3M9$167M9$170.7M9
Capital expenditure$14.9M10$21.8M11$19M12$13.1M12$19.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$96.9M7$11.6M8$106.3M9$153.9M9$150.9M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$20.8M13$28.9M14$24.3M14$24.5M14$40.8M14
Diluted shares32.2M30.0M31.5M31.1M31.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$331.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.11
Free cash flow it threw off
$48.44
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $331.66 of net worth that earned you $15.11 and generated $48.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 -5%FY23 12%FY24 17%FY25 7%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $20.81 and $290.21 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$290.21
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$150.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$159.24
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$150.9M
Earnings Power Value
$20.81
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$62.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$33.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $159.24
The three cases
Bear0.0%$70.52
Base20.0%$159.24
Bull20.0%$159.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000816956-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000816956-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000816956-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000816956-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000816956-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000816956-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000816956-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000816956-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000816956-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000816956-24-000003 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000816956-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000816956-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000816956-25-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000816956-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)