Collective Mining Ltd.

CNLdata completeness 75%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Collective Mining Ltd. earns about -86% on equity, but has diluted owners by 59% over 3 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	—	—	—
Net income	−$19.1M¹	−$26.9M²	−$49.9M²
Operating cash flow	−$16.9M³	−$22.6M⁴	−$35.9M⁴
Capital expenditure	$353,506⁵	$238,925⁶	$5.89M⁶
Free cash flow (derived)	−$17.3M³	−$22.8M⁴	−$41.8M⁴
Total debt	—	—	—
Cash & equivalents	$14.2M⁷	$38.9M⁷	$129.6M⁷
Diluted shares	58.2M	77.6M	92.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$15.68

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$5.39

Free cash flow it threw off

−$4.51

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $15.68 of net worth that earned you −$5.39 and generated −$4.51 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on equity

-86% avg · 3y

FY23 -150%FY24 -73%FY25 -34%

It earned an average -86% on equity over 3 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+59% shares · 3y

Share count is up 59% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002553 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037056 (ProfitLoss)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002553 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037056 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001013762-25-002553 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037056 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-037056 (CashAndCashEquivalents)