MeritValue

Cinemark Holdings, Inc.

CNKdata completeness 50%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cinemark Holdings, Inc. earns about -131% on equity, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $10.66 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.51B1$2.45B2$3.07B3$3.05B3$3.12B3
Net income−$422.8M4−$271.2M5$188.2M6$309.7M6$138.2M6
Operating cash flow$166.2M7————
Capital expenditure$95.5M8$110.7M8———
Free cash flow (derived)$70.7M7————
Total debt$2.5B9————
Cash & equivalents$707.3M10$14.9M11$10.8M12$012$012
Diluted shares117.3M118.2M152.0M154.9M134.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.29
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares of this business that earned you $10.29 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-131% avg · 5y
FY21 -131%FY22 —FY23 —FY24 —FY25 —

It earned an average -131% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$10.66
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$138.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016143 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022756 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-016143 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022756 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002035 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-004235 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-22-002035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-022756 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-056015 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)