MeritValue

CNH Industrial N.V.

CNHdata completeness 75%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CNH Industrial N.V. earns about 67% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $14.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.8B1$21.5B2$22.1B3$17.1B3$15.3B3
Net income$1.72B4$2.03B5$2.28B6$1.25B6$510M6
Operating cash flow$4.08B7$557M8$907M9$1.97B9$2.54B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$5.04B10$4.38B11$4.32B12$3.19B12$2.58B12
Diluted shares1.36B1.36B1.35B1.26B1.25B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$62.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$4.08
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $62.13 of net worth that earned you $4.08 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
67% avg · 5y
FY21 124%FY22 97%FY23 84%FY24 22%FY25 7%

It earned an average 67% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$14.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.72B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007899 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001567094-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007899 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001567094-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007899 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001567094-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007899 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001567094-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)