CN ENERGY GROUP. INC.

CNEYdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

CN ENERGY GROUP. INC. earns about -3% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 285% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$19.8M¹	$40.2M¹	$57.9M²	$51M²	$35.6M²
Net income	$1.3M³	$2.23M⁴	−$5.63M⁵	−$14M⁵	−$11.1M⁵
Operating cash flow	−$11.6M⁶	−$7.51M⁷	−$30.2M⁸	−$2.37M⁸	−$1.97M⁸
Capital expenditure	$434,834⁹	$2.49M¹⁰	$683,392¹¹	$0¹¹	$0¹¹
Free cash flow (derived)	−$12M⁶	−$10M⁷	−$30.8M⁸	−$2.37M⁸	−$1.97M⁸
Total debt	$1.81M¹²	$4.59M¹³	$5.81M¹⁴	$0¹⁴	—
Cash & equivalents	$190,758¹⁵	$18M¹⁶	$195,502¹⁶	$317,323¹⁶	$390,706¹⁶
Diluted shares	506,584	721,993	90,683	274,481	2.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$522.92

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

−$57.14

Free cash flow it threw off

−$10.11

Debt you’d be carrying

—

10 shares is a claim on $522.92 of net worth that earned you −$57.14 and generated −$10.11 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

-3% avg · 5y

FY21 3%FY22 5%FY23 -4%FY24 -11%FY25 -9%

It earned an average -3% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+285% shares · 5y

Share count is up 285% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

not applicable

3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)

Earnings Power Value

not applicable

normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined

Graham Number

not applicable

diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts

20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-23-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000556 (Revenues)
20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000767 (NetIncomeLoss)
20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-001105 (NetIncomeLoss)
20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000556 (NetIncomeLoss)
20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000767 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-001105 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000556 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000767 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-001105 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000556 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001410578-23-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-24-000767 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
20-F · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-001105 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
20-F · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001477932-25-001105 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
20-F · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001477932-26-000556 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)