MeritValue

CENTENE CORP

CNCdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CENTENE CORP earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 16% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.31 and $90.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$118B1$135.5B2$140.1B3$145.5B3$174.6B3
Net income$1.35B4$1.2B5$2.7B6$3.31B6−$6.67B6
Operating cash flow$4.21B7$6.26B8$8.05B9$154M9$5.09B9
Capital expenditure$910M10$1B11$799M12$644M12$767M12
Free cash flow (derived)$3.3B7$5.26B8$7.25B9−$490M9$4.32B9
Total debt$37.9B13$36.2B14$35.8B15$37.2B16$34.9B16
Cash & equivalents$13.1B17$12.1B18$17.2B19$14.1B19$17.9B19
Diluted shares590.5M582.0M545.7M523.7M493.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$404.63
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$135.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$87.63
Debt you’d be carrying
$707.62

10 shares is a claim on $404.63 of net worth that earned you −$135.34 and generated $87.63 of cash last year, against $707.62 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 3%FY23 7%FY24 7%FY25 -14%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−16% shares · 5y

Share count is down 16% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.31 and $90.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$81.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.32B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$90.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$4.32B
Earnings Power Value
$28.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $90.71
The three cases
Bear0.0%$90.71
Base0.0%$90.71
Bull5.0%$121.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-23-000047 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001071739-24-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001071739-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001071739-26-000049 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)