MeritValue

CNA FINANCIAL CORP

CNAdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CNA FINANCIAL CORP earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $45.04 and $175.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.43B1$1.57B2$1.62B3$1.61B3$1.58B3
Net income$1.18B4$682M5$1.21B6$959M6$1.28B6
Operating cash flow$2B7$2.5B8$2.29B9$2.57B9$2.49B9
Capital expenditure$26M10$52M11$90M12$95M12$86M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.97B7$2.45B8$2.2B9$2.48B9$2.4B9
Total debt$5.56B13$5.56B14$6.06B15$5.95B16$5.94B16
Cash & equivalents$536M17$475M18$345M18$472M18$425M18
Diluted shares272.8M272.5M272.2M272.7M272.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$426.62
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$46.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$88.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$218.14

10 shares is a claim on $426.62 of net worth that earned you $46.92 and generated $88.25 of cash last year, against $218.14 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 7%FY25 8%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $45.04 and $175.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$175.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$2.4B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$149.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth6.8%
  • fcfBase$2.4B
Earnings Power Value
$45.04
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.18B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$67.1
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years6.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $149.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$105.84
Base6.8%$149.08
Bull11.8%$188.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 6.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-24-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-23-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021175-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021175-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)