MeritValue

Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc.

CMTGdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Claros Mortgage Trust, Inc. earns about -6% on equity, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $0.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$262.7M1$287.2M2$306.6M3$248.4M3$187.8M3
Net income$161.2M4$112.2M5$6.03M6−$221.3M6−$489.1M6
Operating cash flow$213.6M7$111M8$111.1M9$84.5M9−$30.5M9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$4.76B10$5.69B11$5.69B12$4.9B13$3.16B13
Cash & equivalents$310.2M14$306.5M15$187.3M16$99.1M16$173.2M16
Diluted shares134.5M139.3M138.6M139.2M140.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$109.3
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$34.9
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$225.21

10 shares is a claim on $109.3 of net worth that earned you −$34.9 last year, against $225.21 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 5%FY23 0%FY24 -11%FY25 -32%

It earned an average -6% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 34% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$0.45
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.03M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017115 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023258 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057455 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017115 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023258 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057455 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017115 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023258 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057455 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-23-003074 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017115 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023258 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057455 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-017115 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-023258 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-057455 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)