MeritValue

CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES INC

CMTdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CORE MOLDING TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.54 and $162.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$307.5M1$377.4M2$357.7M3$302.4M3$273.8M3
Net income$4.67M4$12.2M5$20.3M6$13.3M6$11.2M6
Operating cash flow$12.5M7$19M8$34.8M9$35.2M9$19.2M9
Capital expenditure$11.6M10$16.6M11$9.1M12$11.5M12$17.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$977,0007$2.39M8$25.7M9$23.6M9$1.92M9
Total debt$46.4M13$47.2M14$44.5M15$41.2M16$37.4M16
Cash & equivalents$6.15M17$4.18M18$24.1M19$41.8M20$38.1M20
Diluted shares8.1M8.4M8.8M8.8M8.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$181.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$12.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.2
Debt you’d be carrying
$42.94

10 shares is a claim on $181.85 of net worth that earned you $12.87 and generated $2.2 of cash last year, against $42.94 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 9%FY23 13%FY24 9%FY25 7%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.54 and $162.08 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$162.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$88.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$23.6M
Earnings Power Value
$14.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $88.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.89
Base20.0%$88.64
Bull20.0%$88.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-23-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001026655-23-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001026655-24-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001026655-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001026655-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)