MeritValue

CMS ENERGY CORP

CMSdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CMS ENERGY CORP earns about 6% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $34.53 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.08B1$8.32B2$7.26B3$7.32B3$8.31B3
Net income$1.35B4$837M5$887M6$1B6$1.07B6
Operating cash flow$1.82B7$855M8$2.31B9$2.37B9$2.24B9
Capital expenditure$2.08B10$2.37B10———
Free cash flow (derived)−$257M7−$1.52B8———
Total debt$12.4B11$14.2B12$15.5B13$16.4B14$18.8B14
Cash & equivalents$452M15$164M16$227M17$103M18$509M18
Diluted shares289.5M290.0M291.7M298.3M301.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$303.79
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$35.58
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$623.16

10 shares is a claim on $303.79 of net worth that earned you $35.58 last year, against $623.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
6% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 6%FY23 6%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned an average 6% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$34.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$49.12
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-24-000044 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811156-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811156-26-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811156-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811156-26-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811156-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811156-26-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-23-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-23-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811156-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811156-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000811156-26-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000811156-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000811156-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000811156-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000811156-26-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)