MeritValue

CIMPRESS plc

CMPRdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CIMPRESS plc earns about -6% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $55.02 and $63.8 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.58B1$2.89B2$3.08B3$3.29B3$3.4B3
Net income−$85.2M4−$54.3M5−$186M6$173.7M6$15M6
Operating cash flow$265.2M7$219.5M8$130.3M9$350.7M9$298.1M9
Capital expenditure$38.5M10$54M11$53.8M12$54.9M12$89M12
Free cash flow (derived)$226.7M7$165.5M8$76.5M9$295.8M9$209M9
Total debt$1.74B13$1.69B14$1.64B15$1.6B16$1.59B16
Cash & equivalents$183M17$277.1M18$130.3M19$203.8M20$234M20
Diluted shares26.0M26.1M26.3M27.0M25.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$227.6
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.83
Free cash flow it threw off
$81.54
Debt you’d be carrying
$618.35

10 shares is a claim on −$227.6 of net worth that earned you $5.83 and generated $81.54 of cash last year, against $618.35 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-6% avg · 5y
FY21 -13%FY22 -5%FY23 -13%FY24 1%FY25 -1%

It earned about -6% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $55.02 and $63.8 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$209M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$63.8
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$209M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $63.8
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.8
Base0.0%$63.8
Bull5.0%$91.99

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-22-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001262976-22-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001262976-23-000051 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001262976-24-000064 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001628280-25-039200 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)