MeritValue

CUMULUS MEDIA INC

CMLSdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CUMULUS MEDIA INC earns about -4% on invested capital, and has bought back 17% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$916.5M1$953.5M2$844.5M3$827.1M4$741.7M4
Net income$17.3M5$16.2M6−$117.9M7−$283.3M8−$200.7M8
Operating cash flow$68.5M9$78.5M10$31.7M11−$3.12M12−$21.3M12
Capital expenditure$29.1M13$31.1M14$24.8M15$19.5M16$20.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)$39.4M9$47.4M10$6.85M11−$22.6M12−$41.6M12
Total debt$798.9M17$714.5M18$672.4M19$1.31B20$1.44B20
Cash & equivalents$177M21$63.8M22$80.7M22$63.8M23$82M23
Diluted shares20.9M20.0M17.3M16.9M17.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$110.18
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$115.46
Free cash flow it threw off
−$23.92
Debt you’d be carrying
$828.25

10 shares is a claim on −$110.18 of net worth that earned you −$115.46 and generated −$23.92 of cash last year, against $828.25 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-4% avg · 5y
FY21 7%FY22 7%FY23 -3%FY24 -18%FY25 -14%

It earned an average -4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−17% shares · 5y

Share count is down 17% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 80% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-24-000025 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-24-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-24-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-24-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-24-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058623-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058623-25-000031 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058623-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)