MeritValue

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC

CMGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRILL INC earns about 51% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4609% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.48 and $64.14 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.55B1$8.63B2$9.87B3$11.3B3$11.9B3
Net income$653M4$899.1M5$1.23B6$1.53B6$1.54B6
Operating cash flow$1.28B7$1.32B8$1.78B9$2.11B9$2.11B9
Capital expenditure$442.5M10$479.2M11$560.7M12$593.6M12$666.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)$839.6M7$844M8$1.22B9$1.51B9$1.45B9
Total debt$013$014$015$016$017
Cash & equivalents$815.4M18$384M19$560.6M20$748.5M21$350.5M21
Diluted shares28.5M1.40B1.39B1.38B1.34B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$21.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$11.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$10.78
Debt you’d be carrying
$0

10 shares is a claim on $21.08 of net worth that earned you $11.44 and generated $10.78 of cash last year, against $0 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
51% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 45%FY23 49%FY24 53%FY25 62%

It earned about 51% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4609% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4609% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.48 and $64.14 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$64.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$1.45B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$35.29
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth19.9%
  • fcfBase$1.45B
Earnings Power Value
$9.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.23B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.35
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years19.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $35.29
The three cases
Bear0.0%$15.67
Base19.9%$35.29
Bull20.0%$35.41

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 19.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058090-22-000011 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001058090-23-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001058090-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001058090-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001058090-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)