MeritValue

COMCAST CORP

CMCSAdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMCAST CORP earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 20% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $42.99 and $66.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$116.4B1$121.4B2$121.6B3$123.7B3$123.7B3
Net income$14.2B4$5.37B5$15.4B6$16.2B6$20B6
Operating cash flow$29.1B7$26.4B8$28.5B9$27.7B9$33.6B9
Capital expenditure$9.17B10$10.6B11$12.2B12$12.2B12$11.8B12
Free cash flow (derived)$20B7$15.8B8$16.3B9$15.5B9$21.9B9
Total debt$2.13B13$1.74B14$2.07B15$4.91B16$5.96B16
Cash & equivalents$8.71B17$4.75B18$6.22B19$7.32B20$9.48B20
Diluted shares4.65B4.43B4.15B3.91B3.71B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$261.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$53.92
Free cash flow it threw off
$59.03
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.06

10 shares is a claim on $261.26 of net worth that earned you $53.92 and generated $59.03 of cash last year, against $16.06 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 9%FY23 23%FY24 19%FY25 21%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−20% shares · 5y

Share count is down 20% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 179% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $42.99 and $66.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$63.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$16.3B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.0%
  • fcfBase$16.3B
Earnings Power Value
$42.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$15.4B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$56.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.36
The three cases
Bear0.0%$63.58
Base1.0%$66.36
Bull6.0%$82.07

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-23-000010 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001166691-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001166691-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001166691-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-004994 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)