Caledonia Mining Corp Plc
CMCLdata completeness 88%10 fiscal years on fileCaledonia Mining Corp Plc earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.26 and $9.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100M1 | $121.3M1 | $142.1M1 | $146.3M1 | $183M1 |
| Net income | $18.9M2 | $17.4M2 | $11.2M2 | −$7.86M2 | $17.9M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $31M3 | $30.9M4 | $42.6M5 | $14.8M5 | $42M5 |
| Capital expenditure | $25.1M6 | $32.1M7 | $41.5M8 | $28.6M8 | $27.5M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $5.88M3 | −$1.21M4 | $1.12M5 | −$13.8M5 | $14.5M5 |
| Total debt | $408,0009 | $09 | $7.1M10 | $7.11M10 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $19.1M11 | $17.2M11 | $6.74M11 | $6.71M11 | $4.26M11 |
| Diluted shares | 12.1M | 12.8M | 12.8M | 19.2M | 19.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $111.31 of net worth that earned you $9.32 and generated $7.53 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1643% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.26 and $9.38 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.12M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$1.12M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$17.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.06 |
| Base | 5.0% | $1.26 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $1.5 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (Revenue)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-002682 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-002682 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-003779 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (Borrowings)
- 20-F · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (CashAndCashEquivalents)