Caledonia Mining Corp Plc earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.2 and $9.05 a share. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2020 | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100M1 | $121.3M1 | $142.1M1 | $146.3M1 | $183M1 |
| Net income | $18.9M2 | $17.4M2 | $11.2M2 | −$7.86M2 | $17.9M2 |
| Operating cash flow | $31M3 | $30.9M4 | $42.6M5 | $14.8M5 | $42M5 |
| Capital expenditure | $25.1M6 | $32.1M7 | $41.5M8 | $28.6M8 | $27.5M8 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $5.88M3,6 | −$1.21M4,7 | $1.12M5,8 | −$13.8M5,8 | $14.5M5,8 |
| Total debt | $408,0009 | $09 | $7.1M10 | $7.11M10 | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $19.1M11 | $17.2M11 | $6.74M11 | $6.71M11 | $4.26M11 |
| Diluted shares | 12.1M | 12.8M | 12.8M | 19.2M | 19.2M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.
10 shares is a claim on $111.31 of net worth that earned you $9.32 and generated $7.53 of cash last year.
It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1643% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.2 and $9.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a conservative ceiling on what a defensive investor should pay, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period10 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$1.12M
assumptions (10)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Terminal growth2.50%
- Projection period5 years
- FCF growth5.00%
- Starting free cash flow$1.12M
assumptions (8)
- Risk-free rate (10Y Treasury)5.00%
- Equity risk premium5.00%
- Beta (β)1.00
- Equity share of capital85.0%
- Debt spread over risk-free1.50%
- Tax rate21.0%
- Normalized earnings$17.4M
- Growth assumed0.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $1.01 |
| Base | 5.0% | $1.2 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $1.43 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
This page is free, and so is every other company on MeritValue.
Connect the MeritValue MCP server to Claude or another MCP client, ask about Caledonia Mining Corp Plc, and get these exact figures with their filing receipts — not an improvised DCF.
Get a free key →Pull the companies with a published value under any model (up to 500 a request, filtered by data completeness) into your own sheet or agent. Screening is what Analyst adds, at $9/month.
See pricing →Follow CMCL and keep your own price beside the value. The same engine, with the same receipts.
MeritValue on the App Store →- 20-F filed 2025-05-16 · periods ending 2020-12-31, 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (Revenue)
- 20-F filed 2025-05-16 · periods ending 2020-12-31, 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-002682 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2024-05-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2025-05-16 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2023-04-28 · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-002682 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2024-05-15 · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2025-05-16 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (PurchaseOfPropertyPlantAndEquipmentClassifiedAsInvestingActivities)
- 20-F filed 2022-05-17 · periods ending 2020-12-31, 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-003779 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2024-05-15 · periods ending 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-002911 (Borrowings)
- 20-F filed 2025-05-16 · periods ending 2020-12-31, 2021-12-31, 2022-12-31, 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-003266 (CashAndCashEquivalents)