COMMERCIAL METALS Co
CMCdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on fileCOMMERCIAL METALS Co earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $44.1 and $299.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $6.73B1 | $8.91B2 | $8.8B3 | $7.93B3 | $7.8B3 |
| Net income | $412.9M4 | $1.22B5 | $859.8M6 | $485.5M6 | $84.7M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $228.5M7 | $700.3M8 | $1.34B9 | $899.7M9 | $715.1M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $184.2M10 | $450M11 | $606.7M12 | $324.3M12 | $402.8M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $44.3M7 | $250.3M8 | $737.4M9 | $575.4M9 | $312.2M9 |
| Total debt | $1.08B13 | $1.84B14 | $1.1B15 | $1.1B16 | $1.25B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $501.1M17 | $679.2M18 | $595.7M18 | $859.6M18 | $1.05B18 |
| Diluted shares | 122.0M | 122.4M | 118.6M | 117.2M | 114.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $367.53 of net worth that earned you $7.42 and generated $27.37 of cash last year, against $109.52 of debt.
It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 16% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $44.1 and $299.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$575.4M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$575.4M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$485.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $70.28 |
| Base | 20.0% | $162.66 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $162.66 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-23-000126 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-23-000126 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-23-000126 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-23-000126 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-22-000140 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-23-000126 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-08-31 · accession 0000022444-24-000140 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-08-31 · accession 0000022444-25-000138 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)