MeritValue

Clearwater Paper Corp

CLWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Clearwater Paper Corp earns about 8% on equity, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $29.48 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.77B1$1.2B2$1.14B3$1.38B3$1.56B3
Net income−$28.1M4$46M5$107.7M6$196.3M6−$18.6M6
Operating cash flow$96.4M7$150.2M8$190.7M9$61.4M9$12.3M9
Capital expenditure$38.4M10$33.5M11$73.7M12$116.6M12$88.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$58M7$116.7M8$117M9−$55.2M9−$76.5M9
Total debt$639.2M13$565.8M14$439.9M15$282.2M16$346.1M16
Cash & equivalents$25.2M17$53.7M17$42M18$79.6M19$30.7M19
Diluted shares16.8M17.2M17.1M16.8M16.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$510.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$11.5
Free cash flow it threw off
−$47.31
Debt you’d be carrying
$214.05

10 shares is a claim on $510.42 of net worth that earned you −$11.5 and generated −$47.31 of cash last year, against $214.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 5y
FY21 -5%FY22 8%FY23 16%FY24 23%FY25 -2%

It earned an average 8% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 46% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$29.48
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$46M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-23-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001504337-24-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001504337-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001441236-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)