MeritValue

CLARIVATE PLC

CLVTdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CLARIVATE PLC earns about -14% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $18.18 and $32.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.88B1$2.66B2$2.63B3$2.56B3$2.46B3
Net income−$270.5M4−$3.96B5−$911.2M6−$636.7M6−$201.1M6
Operating cash flow$323.8M7$509.3M8$744.2M9$646.6M9$628.5M9
Capital expenditure$118.5M10$202.9M11$242.5M12$289.1M12$263.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$205.3M7$306.4M8$501.7M9$357.5M9$365.3M9
Total debt$5.49B13————
Cash & equivalents$430.9M14$356.8M15$370.7M16$295.2M17$329.2M17
Diluted shares640.8M678.6M671.6M693.6M673.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$71.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.99
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.43
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $71.93 of net worth that earned you −$2.99 and generated $5.43 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-14% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 -46%FY23 -10%FY24 -9%FY25 -3%

It earned about -14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $18.18 and $32.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$32.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$365.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$18.18
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$365.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $18.18
The three cases
Bear0.0%$8.24
Base20.0%$18.18
Bull20.0%$18.18

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-24-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001764046-25-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001764046-26-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-24-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001764046-25-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001764046-26-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-24-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001764046-25-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001764046-26-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-24-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001764046-25-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001764046-26-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-22-000064 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001764046-23-000106 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001764046-24-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001764046-25-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001764046-26-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)