CELESTICA INC

CLSdata completeness 88%11 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CELESTICA INC earns about 24% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.8 and $160.64 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.63B1$7.25B2$7.96B3$9.65B3$12.4B3
Net income$103.9M4$180.1M5$244.4M6$428M6$832.5M6
Operating cash flow$226.8M7$211.1M8$326.2M9$473.9M9$659.5M9
Capital expenditure$109M10$125.1M11$170.9M11$201.2M11
Free cash flow (derived)$102.1M8$201.1M9$303M9$458.3M9
Total debt$012
Cash & equivalents$394M13$374.5M14$370.4M15$423.3M16$595.6M16
Diluted shares126.7M123.6M120.3M118.7M116.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$190.73
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$71.64
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.44
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $190.73 of net worth that earned you $71.64 and generated $39.44 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 14%FY23 17%FY24 29%FY25 51%

It earned about 24% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.8 and $160.64 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$160.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$303M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$90.14
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$303M
Earnings Power Value
$21.8
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$244.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$55.43
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $90.14
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.38
Base20.0%$90.14
Bull20.0%$90.14

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030894-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractsWithCustomers)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030894-24-000009 (ProfitLossAttributableToOwnersOfParent)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030894-24-000009 (CashFlowsFromUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030894-22-000008 (Borrowings)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001030894-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001030894-26-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)