MeritValue

Calumet, Inc. /DE

CLMTdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Calumet, Inc. /DE earns about -5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 4 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below. Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.69B1$4.18B2$4.19B2$4.14B2
Net income−$173.3M3$48.1M4−$222M4−$33.8M4
Operating cash flow$100.6M5−$14.9M6−$46.4M6$108.9M6
Capital expenditure$536.2M7$271.8M8$76.7M8$52.3M8
Free cash flow (derived)−$435.6M5,7−$286.7M6,8−$123.1M6,8$56.6M6,8
Total debt—$1.83B9$2.12B10$2.23B11
Cash & equivalents$35.2M12$7.9M13$38.1M13$125.1M13
Diluted shares79.3M80.1M83.1M86.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom). A derived or summed figure cites every filing line it was built from.

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$84.45
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.9
Free cash flow it threw off
$6.52
Debt you’d be carrying
$257.43

10 shares is a claim on −$84.45 of net worth that earned you −$3.9 and generated $6.52 of cash last year, against $257.43 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 4y
FY22 —FY23 4%FY24 -13%FY25 -7%

It earned an average -5% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 4y

Share count is up 9% over 4 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 22% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.6.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

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Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  10. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K filed 2025-03-03 · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001961 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K filed 2026-02-27 · periods ending 2023-12-31, 2024-12-31, 2025-12-31 · accession 0002013745-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)