MeritValue

CLEAN HARBORS INC

CLHdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CLEAN HARBORS INC earns about 7% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $75.43 and $109.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.81B1$5.17B2$5.41B3$5.89B3$6.03B3
Net income$203.2M4$411.7M5$377.9M6$402.3M6$391M6
Operating cash flow$546M7$626.2M8$734.6M9$777.8M9$866.7M9
Capital expenditure$241.9M10$345.1M11$422.3M12$432.2M12$424.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$304.1M7$281.2M8$312.3M9$345.5M9$441.8M9
Total debt$2.53B13$2.42B14$2.3B15$2.79B16$2.78B16
Cash & equivalents$452.6M17$492.6M18$444.7M18$687.2M18$826.3M18
Diluted shares54.8M54.5M54.4M54.2M53.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$511.14
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$72.79
Free cash flow it threw off
$82.25
Debt you’d be carrying
$516.82

10 shares is a claim on $511.14 of net worth that earned you $72.79 and generated $82.25 of cash last year, against $516.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 9%FY23 7%FY24 6%FY25 6%

It earned about 7% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $75.43 and $109.05 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$109.05
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$345.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$88.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.1%
  • fcfBase$345.5M
Earnings Power Value
$75.43
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$391M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$91.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $88.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$55.61
Base7.1%$88.54
Bull12.1%$117.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-23-000015 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000822818-25-000007 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000822818-26-000009 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)