MeritValue

Clearfield, Inc.

CLFDdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Clearfield, Inc. earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $15.06 and $55.49 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$140.8M1$270.9M2$225.7M3$125.6M3$150.1M3
Net income$20.3M4$49.4M5$32.5M6−$12.5M6−$8.05M6
Operating cash flow$10.9M7$2.26M8$18.4M8$22.2M8$26.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.05M10$8.5M11$7.68M12$9.57M12$4.74M13
Free cash flow (derived)$8.86M7−$6.24M8$10.7M8$12.7M8$21.8M9
Total debt$014$015$2.11M16$016—
Cash & equivalents$13.2M17$16.7M18$37.8M19$14.1M20$21.5M20
Diluted shares13.8M13.9M15.0M14.6M14.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.11
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.75
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.59
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $183.11 of net worth that earned you −$5.75 and generated $15.59 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 22%FY22 38%FY23 12%FY24 -3%FY25 3%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $15.06 and $55.49 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$55.49
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$31.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$12.7M
Earnings Power Value
$15.06
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$20.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $31.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.46
Base20.0%$31.03
Bull20.0%$31.03

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001171843-25-007594 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001171843-25-007594 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001171843-25-007594 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001171843-25-007594 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-22-007645 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (DebtCurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001171843-22-007645 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001171843-23-007342 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001171843-24-006402 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001171843-25-007594 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)