MeritValue

CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC.

CLFdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC. earns about 4% on invested capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $7.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$20.4B1$23B2$22B3$19.2B3$18.6B3
Net income$2.99B4$1.34B5$385M6−$760M6−$1.48B6
Operating cash flow$2.79B7$2.42B8$2.27B9$105M9−$462M9
Capital expenditure$705M10$943M11$646M12$695M12$561M12
Free cash flow (derived)$2.08B7$1.48B8$1.62B9−$590M9−$1.02B9
Total debt$10.5B13$8.5B14$6.27B15$14.1B16$14.5B16
Cash & equivalents$48M17$26M18$198M19$54M19$57M19
Diluted shares558.0M524.0M511.0M480.0M508.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$120.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$29.09
Free cash flow it threw off
−$20.14
Debt you’d be carrying
$285.55

10 shares is a claim on $120.39 of net worth that earned you −$29.09 and generated −$20.14 of cash last year, against $285.55 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
4% avg · 5y
FY21 19%FY22 8%FY23 3%FY24 -4%FY25 -8%

It earned an average 4% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 38% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$7.85
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$385M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-24-000038 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-23-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000764065-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000764065-25-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000764065-26-000025 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)