Cellebrite DI Ltd.
CLBTdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Cellebrite DI Ltd. earns about -35% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 55% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.96 and $30 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $246.2M1 | $270.7M2 | $325.1M3 | $401.2M3 | $475.7M3 |
| Net income | $71.4M4 | $120.8M5 | −$81.1M6 | −$283M6 | $78.3M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $36.1M7 | $20.6M8 | $102.1M9 | $132.2M9 | $173.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $5.11M10 | $6.9M11 | $5.23M12 | $8.57M12 | $13.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $30.9M7 | $13.7M8 | $96.8M9 | $123.6M9 | $160.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $146M13 | $87.6M14 | $189.5M15 | $191.7M16 | $124.5M16 |
| Diluted shares | 161.5M | 195.4M | 190.2M | 209.5M | 249.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $19.38 of net worth that earned you $3.13 and generated $6.42 of cash last year.
It earned about -35% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 55% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.96 and $30 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$123.6M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$123.6M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$71.4M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $7.56 |
| Base | 20.0% | $16.62 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $16.62 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854587-24-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013790 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854587-24-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013790 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854587-24-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013790 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001854587-24-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013790 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001854587-24-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-013334 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-013790 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)