MeritValue

Columbia Financial, Inc.

CLBKdata completeness 100%10 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Columbia Financial, Inc. earns about 8% on invested capital, and has bought back 2% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $5.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$270.2M1$309.7M2$395M3$451.4M3$471M3
Net income$92M4$86.2M4$36.1M4−$11.7M4$51.8M4
Operating cash flow$98.7M5$142.2M6$40.7M7$33.3M7$68.4M7
Capital expenditure$5.49M8$7.2M9$7.64M10$7.45M10$9.84M10
Free cash flow (derived)$93.2M5$135M6$33.1M7$25.9M7$58.6M7
Total debt$377.3M11$1.13B12$1.53B13$1.08B14$1.18B14
Cash & equivalents$71M15$179.2M16$423.2M17$289.2M18$340.8M18
Diluted shares104.2M106.2M102.9M101.8M101.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$114.01
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.08
Free cash flow it threw off
$5.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$116.24

10 shares is a claim on $114.01 of net worth that earned you $5.08 and generated $5.75 of cash last year, against $116.24 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 6%FY23 9%FY24 7%FY25 11%

It earned an average 8% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is down 2% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 214% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$33.1M
Earnings Power Value
$5.27
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$51.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$11.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723596-24-000075 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723596-25-000061 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723596-26-000010 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-197874 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723596-24-000075 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723596-25-000061 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723596-26-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723596-24-000075 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723596-25-000061 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723596-26-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723596-23-000093 (LongTermDebt)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723596-24-000075 (LongTermDebt)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723596-25-000061 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001723596-26-000010 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001723596-23-000093 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001723596-24-000075 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001723596-25-000061 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001723596-26-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)