MeritValue

COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO

CLdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.67 and $93.82 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$17.4B1$18B2$19.5B3$20.1B3$20.4B3
Net income$2.17B4$1.79B5$2.3B6$2.89B6$2.13B6
Operating cash flow$3.33B7$2.56B8$3.75B9$4.11B9$4.2B9
Capital expenditure$567M10$696M10$705M11$561M11$564M11
Free cash flow (derived)$2.76B7$1.86B8$3.04B9$3.55B9$3.63B9
Total debt$7.21B12$8.76B13$8.24B14$14.9B15$15.8B15
Cash & equivalents$832M16$775M17$966M18$1.1B19$1.29B19
Diluted shares848.3M838.8M829.2M823.2M811.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$0.67
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.29
Free cash flow it threw off
$44.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$195.11

10 shares is a claim on $0.67 of net worth that earned you $26.29 and generated $44.8 of cash last year, against $195.11 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 35%FY22 25%FY23 34%FY24 22%FY25 15%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 120% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.67 and $93.82 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$93.82
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.7%
  • fcfBase$3.55B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$72.88
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.7%
  • fcfBase$3.55B
Earnings Power Value
$27.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.17B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$1.98
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $72.88
The three cases
Bear0.0%$44.54
Base8.7%$72.88
Bull13.7%$93.47

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-24-000003 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021665-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-24-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021665-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-24-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021665-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-23-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021665-24-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-25-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000021665-23-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000021665-24-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000021665-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000021665-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)