MeritValue

CITIZENS HOLDING CO /MS/

CIZNdata completeness 100%15 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CITIZENS HOLDING CO /MS/ earns about 15% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 11% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.66 and $13.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2019FY 2020FY 2021FY 2022FY 2023
Revenue$35.4M1$40.6M2$38.5M3$39.7M3$49.3M3
Net income$5.9M4$6.93M5$7.49M6$9.62M6$1.85M6
Operating cash flow$13.5M7$14M8$17.5M9$13.8M9$5.52M9
Capital expenditure$1.04M10$2.02M11$2.6M12$2.64M12$718,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$12.5M7$12M8$14.9M9$11.1M9$4.81M9
Total debt—$221.3M13$130.8M14$145.6M15$176.1M15
Cash & equivalents$74.5M16$42.3M16$79.2M17$28.6M18$94.5M18
Diluted shares5.1M5.6M5.6M5.6M5.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.31
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$314.39

10 shares is a claim on $76.37 of net worth that earned you $3.31 and generated $8.58 of cash last year, against $314.39 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
15% avg · 5y
FY19 36%FY20 4%FY21 7%FY22 9%FY23 17%

It earned about 15% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+11% shares · 5y

Share count is up 11% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.66 and $13.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$11.66
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$13.79
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$11.1M
Earnings Power Value
$12.82
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.93M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$7.53
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $13.79
The three cases
Bear0.0%$13.79
Base0.0%$13.79
Bull5.0%$20.66

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2020-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2019-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-072539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-006793 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-009993 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)