MeritValue

COMPX INTERNATIONAL INC

CIXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

COMPX INTERNATIONAL INC earns about 19% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $16.38 and $92 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$140.8M1$166.6M2$161.3M3$145.9M3$158.3M3
Net income$16.6M4$20.9M5$22.6M6$16.6M6$19.5M6
Operating cash flow$10.5M7$16.9M8$25.8M9$22.9M9$22.9M9
Capital expenditure$4.09M10$3.7M11$1.13M12$1.43M12$3.75M12
Free cash flow (derived)$6.38M7$13.2M8$24.7M9$21.5M9$19.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$76.6M13$26.7M14$41.4M15$60.8M16$54.1M16
Diluted shares12.4M12.3M12.3M12.3M12.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$112.52
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $112.52 of net worth that earned you $15.81 and generated $15.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
19% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 16%FY23 18%FY24 19%FY25 23%

It earned about 19% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $16.38 and $92 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.7%
  • fcfBase$21.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$56.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.7%
  • fcfBase$21.5M
Earnings Power Value
$16.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$19.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $56.4
The three cases
Bear0.0%$29.33
Base17.7%$56.4
Bull20.0%$61.3

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002264 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023463 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002264 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023463 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002264 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023463 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002264 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023463 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-002573 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002264 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-023463 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)