MeritValue

CIVISTA BANCSHARES, INC.

CIVBdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CIVISTA BANCSHARES, INC. earns about 35% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 14% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $24.12 and $92.51 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.6M1$24.5M2$30.4M3$19.1M3$19M3
Net income$40.5M4$39.4M5$43M6$31.7M6$46.2M6
Operating cash flow$40.8M7$25.2M8$62.7M9$48.2M9$43.3M9
Capital expenditure$1.93M10$6.51M11$3.43M12$4.19M12$1.16M12
Free cash flow (derived)$38.8M7$18.7M8$59.3M9$44.1M9$42.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$264.2M13$43.4M14$60.4M14$63.2M14$77.3M14
Diluted shares15.3M15.0M15.2M15.4M17.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$311.96
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$26.53
Free cash flow it threw off
$24.17
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $311.96 of net worth that earned you $26.53 and generated $24.17 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
35% avg · 5y
FY21 53%FY22 18%FY23 29%FY24 41%FY25 35%

It earned about 35% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+14% shares · 5y

Share count is up 14% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $24.12 and $92.51 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$92.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.8%
  • fcfBase$44.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$66.54
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.8%
  • fcfBase$44.1M
Earnings Power Value
$24.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$40.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$43.05
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $66.54
The three cases
Bear0.0%$40.57
Base12.8%$66.54
Bull17.8%$80.2

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031472 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035961 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096836 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031472 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035961 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096836 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031472 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096836 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-24-031472 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035961 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096836 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000950170-25-035961 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-096836 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)