C3is Inc.

CISSdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

C3is Inc. earns about 8% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 71780% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $196.43 and $275.07 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$28.7M1$42.3M1$34.8M1
Net income$9.29M2−$2.75M2$10.5M2
Operating cash flow$5.64M3$25M3$4M3
Capital expenditure$4.3M4$1.62M4$161,9004
Free cash flow (derived)$1.34M3$23.4M3$3.84M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$695,2885$4.64M6$616,6406
Diluted shares48723,007350,055

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2,716.7
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$299.19
Free cash flow it threw off
$109.69
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $2,716.7 of net worth that earned you $299.19 and generated $109.69 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
8% avg · 3y
FY23 17%FY24 -4%FY25 11%

It earned about 8% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+71780% shares · 3y

Share count is up 71780% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $196.43 and $275.07 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$212.93
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.84M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$196.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$3.84M
Earnings Power Value
$275.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$9.29M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$155.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $196.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$158.49
Base5.0%$196.43
Bull10.0%$241.82

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-170448 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-170448 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-170448 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-170448 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001193125-25-100539 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001193125-26-170448 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)