MeritValue

CIRCLE8 GROUP INC

CIRCdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CIRCLE8 GROUP INC earns about -31% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 660% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$161,9741$77,4821$401.4M2$442.6M3$435.9M3
Net income−$3.7M4−$4.09M5−$15.3M6−$135.5M7−$59.4M7
Operating cash flow−$1.99M8−$3.66M9−$9.08M10−$5.99M11−$4.4M11
Capital expenditure$14,47012$40,02013$73,71114$73,45615$66,76815
Free cash flow (derived)−$2M8−$3.7M9−$9.16M10−$6.06M11−$4.46M11
Total debt——$277.8M16$161.2M17$169.3M17
Cash & equivalents$4.02M18$2.18M19$1.35M20$678,67621$81,13421
Diluted shares7.2M330,64825.4M36.8M54.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$5.85
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$10.84
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.81
Debt you’d be carrying
$30.87

10 shares is a claim on −$5.85 of net worth that earned you −$10.84 and generated −$0.81 of cash last year, against $30.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-31% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -1%FY24 -63%FY25 -29%

It earned an average -31% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+660% shares · 5y

Share count is up 660% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 39% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020621 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020621 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-031701 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020621 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-031701 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020621 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-031701 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-020621 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-031701 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001605888-25-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001605888-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)