MeritValue

CION Investment Corp

CIONdata completeness 75%6 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

CION Investment Corp earns about 6% on equity, and has bought back 100% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $9.93 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$118.8M1$50.1M2$95.3M3$33.9M3−$20.6M3
Operating cash flow−$49.2M4$35.3M5−$97.2M6$88.2M6$76.8M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$822.4M7$951.3M8$1.08B9$1.1B10$1.13B10
Cash & equivalents$3.77M11$82.7M12$8.42M12$7.67M12$8.16M12
Diluted shares56.81B56.56B54.7M53.6M52.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$135.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.94
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$215.04

10 shares is a claim on $135.19 of net worth that earned you −$3.94 last year, against $215.04 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
6% avg · 5y
FY21 13%FY22 6%FY23 11%FY24 4%FY25 -3%

It earned an average 6% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−100% shares · 5y

Share count is down 100% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 37% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$9.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$50.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534254-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534254-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534254-26-000003 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534254-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534254-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534254-26-000003 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534254-23-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534254-24-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001534254-25-000004 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001534254-26-000003 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001534254-25-000004 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001534254-26-000003 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)