MeritValue

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP

CINFdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORP earns about 14% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 3% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $150.61 and $477.75 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$9.63B1$6.56B2$10B3$11.3B3$12.6B3
Net income$2.97B4−$487M5$1.84B6$2.29B6$2.39B6
Operating cash flow$1.98B7$2.05B8$2.05B9$2.65B9$3.11B9
Capital expenditure$15M10$15M11$18M12$22M12$20M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.97B7$2.04B8$2.03B9$2.63B9$3.09B9
Total debt$789M13$789M14$790M15$790M16$790M16
Cash & equivalents$1.14B17$1.26B18$907M18$983M18$1.43B18
Diluted shares162.7M158.8M158.1M157.8M157.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,008.94
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$151.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$196.07
Debt you’d be carrying
$50.1

10 shares is a claim on $1,008.94 of net worth that earned you $151.74 and generated $196.07 of cash last year, against $50.1 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
14% avg · 5y
FY21 24%FY22 -5%FY23 16%FY24 17%FY25 16%

It earned about 14% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−3% shares · 5y

Share count is down 3% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $150.61 and $477.75 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$477.75
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$2.63B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$370.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth10.1%
  • fcfBase$2.63B
Earnings Power Value
$150.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.29B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$185.57
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years10.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $370.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$242.07
Base10.1%$370.78
Bull15.1%$453.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 10.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-24-000014 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-25-000009 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-25-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-23-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-24-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000020286-25-000009 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000020286-22-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000020286-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)