MeritValue

CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORP

CIMdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

CHIMERA INVESTMENT CORP earns about 17% on invested capital, and has bought back 66% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $21.74 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$670.1M1−$513.1M2$126.1M3$176.1M3$230.5M3
Operating cash flow$519.2M4$325.7M5$213.3M6$205.7M6−$248.9M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$07—$08$134.6M9$251.5M9
Cash & equivalents$385.7M10$264.6M11$221.7M12$84M13$278.6M13
Diluted shares245.5M78.0M77.5M82.2M83.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$306.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.46
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$29.96

10 shares is a claim on $306.48 of net worth that earned you $27.46 last year, against $29.96 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
17% avg · 5y
FY21 30%FY22 -6%FY23 27%FY24 17%FY25 19%

It earned an average 17% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−66% shares · 5y

Share count is down 66% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$21.74
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$176.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$34.44
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007962 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006426 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409493-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007962 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006426 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001409493-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-22-003020 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006426 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001409493-26-000017 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-003963 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-007962 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-006426 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001409493-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)