Colliers International Group Inc.

CIGIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Colliers International Group Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 19% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.46 and $265.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.09B1$4.46B2$4.34B3$4.82B4$5.56B4
Net income−$237.6M5$194.5M6$144.7M7$236.9M8$224.6M8
Operating cash flow$289M9$67M10$165.7M11$326M12$330.1M12
Capital expenditure$58M13$67.7M14$84.5M15$65.1M16$78.7M16
Free cash flow (derived)$231M9−$650,00010$81.1M11$260.9M12$251.4M12
Total debt$531.1M17$1.44B18$1.5B19$1.51B20$1.63B21
Cash & equivalents$396.7M22$173.7M23$181.1M24$176.3M25$207.9M25
Diluted shares42.9M43.9M46.3M50.2M51.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$300.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$43.96
Free cash flow it threw off
$49.22
Debt you’d be carrying
$319.77

10 shares is a claim on $300.16 of net worth that earned you $43.96 and generated $49.22 of cash last year, against $319.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 9%FY23 4%FY24 9%FY25 8%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+19% shares · 5y

Share count is up 19% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 208% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.46 and $265.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$265.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$251.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$132.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$251.4M
Earnings Power Value
$39.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$194.5M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$36.94
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $132.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$42.42
Base20.0%$132.57
Bull20.0%$132.57

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (ProfitLoss)
  8. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (ProfitLoss)
  9. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-22-001149 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (LongTermDebt)
  19. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (LongTermDebt)
  20. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (LongTermDebt)
  21. 40-F · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (LongTermDebt)
  22. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001171843-23-001030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001171843-24-000835 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  24. 40-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001171843-25-000820 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  25. 40-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001171843-26-000984 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)