MeritValue

CIENA CORP

CIENdata completeness 100%20 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CIENA CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.91 and $34.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.62B1$3.63B2$4.39B3$4.01B3$4.77B3
Net income$500.2M4$152.9M5$254.8M6$84M6$123.3M6
Operating cash flow$541.6M7−$167.8M8$168.3M9$514.5M9$806.1M9
Capital expenditure$79.6M10$90.8M11$106.2M12$136.6M12$140.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$462.1M7−$258.6M8$62.1M9$377.9M9$665.3M9
Total debt$1.35B13$1.07B14$1.56B15$1.54B16$1.54B16
Cash & equivalents$1.42B17$994.4M18$1.01B19$934.9M20$1.09B20
Diluted shares156.7M152.2M149.4M146.0M145.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$187.91
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$8.49
Free cash flow it threw off
$45.8
Debt you’d be carrying
$105.73

10 shares is a claim on $187.91 of net worth that earned you $8.49 and generated $45.8 of cash last year, against $105.73 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 17%FY22 7%FY23 10%FY24 2%FY25 4%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 13% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.91 and $34.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$31.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$377.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$34.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$377.9M
Earnings Power Value
$10.91
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$152.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$18.96
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $34.12
The three cases
Bear0.0%$34.12
Base0.0%$34.12
Bull5.0%$43.11

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-22-000065 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-10-30 · accession 0000936395-22-000065 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-10-29 · accession 0000936395-23-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-10-28 · accession 0000936395-24-000044 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-02 · accession 0001628280-25-056698 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)