Chime Financial, Inc.

CHYMdata completeness 88%3 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Chime Financial, Inc. earns about -72% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 274% over 3 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.44 and $4.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.28B1$1.67B1$2.19B1
Net income−$203.2M2−$25.3M2−$1.01B2
Operating cash flow−$156.6M3$64.1M3$52.8M3
Capital expenditure$10.5M4$4.81M4$19.9M4
Free cash flow (derived)−$167.1M3$59.3M3$32.9M3
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$239.7M5$337.7M5$466.3M5
Diluted shares63.1M64.9M236.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$59.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$42.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.39
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $59.33 of net worth that earned you −$42.74 and generated $1.39 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-72% avg · 3y
FY23 FY24 FY25 -72%

It earned about -72% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+274% shares · 3y

Share count is up 274% over 3 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.44 and $4.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.65
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$32.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$4.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$32.9M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $4.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.96
Base5.0%$4.44
Bull10.0%$5.02

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001795586-26-000013 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001795586-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001795586-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001795586-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001795586-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)