Chewy, Inc.

CHWYdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Chewy, Inc. earns about 58% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.21 and $65.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$8.97B1$10.1B2$11.1B3$11.9B3$12.6B3
Net income−$75.2M4$49.9M5$39.6M6$392.7M6$222.8M6
Operating cash flow$191.7M7$349.8M8$486.2M9$596.3M9$691.6M9
Capital expenditure$183.2M10$230.3M11$143.3M12$143.8M12$129.2M12
Free cash flow (derived)$8.56M7$119.5M8$342.9M9$452.5M9$562.4M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$603.1M13$331.6M14$602.2M15$595.8M16$860.1M16
Diluted shares417.2M427.8M432.0M431.0M425.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.69
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$5.23
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.21
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $11.69 of net worth that earned you $5.23 and generated $13.21 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
58% avg · 5y
FY22 FY23 31%FY24 8%FY25 150%FY26 45%

It earned about 58% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.21 and $65.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$65.4
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$452.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.67
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$452.5M
Earnings Power Value
$1.21
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$49.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$3.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.67
The three cases
Bear0.0%$17.2
Base20.0%$36.67
Bull20.0%$36.67

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)