Chewy, Inc.
CHWYdata completeness 88%9 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
Chewy, Inc. earns about 58% on equity, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.21 and $65.4 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.97B1 | $10.1B2 | $11.1B3 | $11.9B3 | $12.6B3 |
| Net income | −$75.2M4 | $49.9M5 | $39.6M6 | $392.7M6 | $222.8M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $191.7M7 | $349.8M8 | $486.2M9 | $596.3M9 | $691.6M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $183.2M10 | $230.3M11 | $143.3M12 | $143.8M12 | $129.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $8.56M7 | $119.5M8 | $342.9M9 | $452.5M9 | $562.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $603.1M13 | $331.6M14 | $602.2M15 | $595.8M16 | $860.1M16 |
| Diluted shares | 417.2M | 427.8M | 432.0M | 431.0M | 425.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $11.69 of net worth that earned you $5.23 and generated $13.21 of cash last year.
It earned about 58% on equity, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.21 and $65.4 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$452.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$452.5M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$49.9M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $17.2 |
| Base | 20.0% | $36.67 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $36.67 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-30 · accession 0001766502-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-29 · accession 0001766502-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-28 · accession 0001766502-25-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2025-02-02 · accession 0001766502-26-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)