CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. /MO/
CHTRdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on fileThe thesis, from the filings
CHARTER COMMUNICATIONS, INC. /MO/ earns about 2% on invested capital, and has bought back 29% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $375.18 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
i. The business — what you’d actually own
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.1B1 | $1.1B2 | $993M3 | $941M3 | $889M3 |
| Net income | $4.65B4 | $5.06B5 | $4.56B6 | $5.08B6 | $4.99B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $16.2B7 | $14.9B8 | $14.4B9 | $14.4B9 | $16.1B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $7.64B10 | $9.38B11 | $11.1B12 | $11.3B12 | $11.7B12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $8.6B7 | $5.55B8 | $3.32B9 | $3.16B9 | $4.42B9 |
| Total debt | $183.1B13 | $195.2B14 | $195.6B15 | $187.9B16 | $189.5B16 |
| Cash & equivalents | $601M17 | $645M18 | $709M19 | $459M20 | $477M20 |
| Diluted shares | 193.0M | 164.4M | 152.0M | 145.4M | 137.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,165.5
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$362.05
Free cash flow it threw off
$320.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$13,758.31
10 shares is a claim on $1,165.5 of net worth that earned you $362.05 and generated $320.74 of cash last year, against $13,758.31 of debt.
iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 1%FY23 1%FY24 3%FY25 3%
It earned an average 2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Management signal · capital allocation
−29% shares · 5y
Share count is down 29% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.32B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$3.32B
Earnings Power Value
$375.18
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$4.99B
- growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$308.15
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
Sources — the receipts
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-23-000024 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001091667-23-000024 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001091667-24-000028 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001091667-25-000034 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001091667-26-000017 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)