MeritValue

C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.

CHRWdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

C. H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. earns about 13% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $50.07 and $200.35 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$23.1B1$24.7B2$17.6B3$17.7B3$16.2B3
Net income$844.2M4$940.5M5$325.1M6$465.7M6$587.1M6
Operating cash flow$95M7$1.65B8$731.9M9$509.1M9$914.5M9
Capital expenditure$34.2M10$61.9M11$30M12$22.7M12$19.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$60.8M7$1.59B8$702M9$486.4M9$894.9M9
Total debt$3.84B13$3.95B14$3.16B15$2.76B16$2.18B16
Cash & equivalents$257.4M17$217.5M18$145.5M19$145.8M20$160.9M20
Diluted shares133.8M127.2M119.7M120.7M121.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$151.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$48.32
Free cash flow it threw off
$73.65
Debt you’d be carrying
$179.33

10 shares is a claim on $151.9 of net worth that earned you $48.32 and generated $73.65 of cash last year, against $179.33 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
13% avg · 5y
FY21 15%FY22 19%FY23 7%FY24 11%FY25 15%

It earned about 13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 43% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $50.07 and $200.35 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$200.35
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$702M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$131.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth13.8%
  • fcfBase$702M
Earnings Power Value
$50.07
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$587.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.63
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years13.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $131.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.94
Base13.8%$131.08
Bull18.8%$163.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 13.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001043277-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001043277-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001043277-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001043277-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)