MeritValue

Chord Energy Corp

CHRDdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Chord Energy Corp earns about 20% on equity, but has diluted owners by 180% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $152.01 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.58B1$3.65B2$3.9B3$5.25B3$4.88B3
Net income$319.6M4$1.86B5$1.02B6$848.6M6$44.5M6
Operating cash flow$914.1M7$1.92B8$1.82B9$2.1B9$2.04B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$785M10$788.4M11$791.8M12$1.69B13$2.96B13
Cash & equivalents$172.1M14$593.2M15$318M16$37M17$189.5M17
Diluted shares20.6M32.3M43.4M52.7M57.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,396.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$7.68
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$511.51

10 shares is a claim on $1,396.66 of net worth that earned you $7.68 last year, against $511.51 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
20% avg · 5y
FY21 31%FY22 40%FY23 20%FY24 10%FY25 1%

It earned an average 20% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+180% shares · 5y

Share count is up 180% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 277% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$152.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$848.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$48.22
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001486159-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001486159-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001486159-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001486159-24-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001486159-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001486159-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001486159-24-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001486159-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001486159-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001486159-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001486159-24-000007 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001486159-25-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001486159-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001486159-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001486159-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001486159-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001486159-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)