Cheer Holding, Inc.

CHRdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Cheer Holding, Inc. earns about 29% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 84% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $261.79 and $527.27 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$153M1$157.1M2$152.3M3$147.2M3$148.8M3
Net income$35.3M4$26.9M5$30.5M6$26M6$25.6M6
Operating cash flow$46.5M7$7.74M8$42.2M9$22.9M9$17.9M9
Capital expenditure$72,00010$25,00011$3,00012$1,00012
Free cash flow (derived)$46.4M7$7.71M8$42.2M9$22.9M9
Total debt$6,09613$6.07M14$12.5M15$7.65M15
Cash & equivalents$77.3M16$70.5M17$194.5M18$197.7M18$242.1M18
Diluted shares6.5M6.8M172,750206,5441.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$3,473.05
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$240.66
Free cash flow it threw off
Debt you’d be carrying
$71.89

10 shares is a claim on $3,473.05 of net worth that earned you $240.66 last year, against $71.89 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
29% avg · 5y
FY21 44%FY22 26%FY23 34%FY24 22%FY25 19%

It earned about 29% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−84% shares · 5y

Share count is down 84% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 125425% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $261.79 and $527.27 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$504.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$22.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$527.27
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$22.9M
Earnings Power Value
$261.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$26.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$433.7
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $527.27
The three cases
Bear0.0%$527.27
Base0.0%$527.27
Bull5.0%$601.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022374 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022374 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022374 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022374 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-022374 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-021907 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-032337 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)