MeritValue

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp

CHMIdata completeness 75%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

Cherry Hill Mortgage Investment Corp earns about 5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 98% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $3.68 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$12.5M1$22.2M2−$35.5M3$12.2M3$6.94M3
Operating cash flow$48M4$59.9M5$40.7M6−$4.69M6$19.1M6
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$146M7$184.5M8$170.5M9$152.1M10$146.3M10
Cash & equivalents$63.9M11$57.3M12$52.9M13$46.3M13$54.9M13
Diluted shares17.3M19.8M26.3M30.4M34.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$68.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$2.02
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$42.49

10 shares is a claim on $68.57 of net worth that earned you $2.02 last year, against $42.49 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 5%FY22 9%FY23 4%FY24 4%FY25 5%

It earned an average 5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+98% shares · 5y

Share count is up 98% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$3.68
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$12.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011952 (ProfitLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007454 (ProfitLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008094 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011952 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007454 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008094 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010492 (LongTermDebt)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011952 (LongTermDebt)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-25-007454 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008094 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-010492 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-011952 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001140361-26-008094 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)