CHEMUNG FINANCIAL CORP

CHMGdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CHEMUNG FINANCIAL CORP earns about 34% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $53.93 and $100.9 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$69M1$81.5M2$113.1M3$127.6M4$132.8M4
Net income$26.4M5$28.8M6$25M7$23.7M8$15.1M8
Operating cash flow$35.5M9$35M10$30.9M11$29.8M12$45.5M12
Capital expenditure$367,00013$426,00014$462,00015$3.63M16$1.69M16
Free cash flow (derived)$35.1M9$34.6M10$30.4M11$26.2M12$43.8M12
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$27M17$55.9M18$36.8M19$47M20$50.1M20
Diluted shares4.7M4.7M4.7M4.8M4.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$530.2
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$91.2
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $530.2 of net worth that earned you $31.44 and generated $91.2 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
34% avg · 5y
FY21 16%FY22 31%FY23 35%FY24 49%FY25 40%

It earned about 34% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $53.93 and $100.9 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$94.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$30.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$100.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$30.4M
Earnings Power Value
$53.93
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$25M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$61.2
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $100.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$100.9
Base0.0%$100.9
Bull5.0%$122.8

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763563-23-000037 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763563-24-000043 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763563-25-000058 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017546 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763563-23-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763563-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763563-25-000058 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017546 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763563-23-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763563-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763563-25-000058 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017546 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763563-23-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763563-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763563-25-000058 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017546 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000763563-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000763563-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000763563-25-000058 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017546 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)