MeritValue

CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD

CHKPdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD earns about 44% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $79.22 and $150.03 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.17B1$2.33B2$2.41B3$2.57B3$2.73B3
Net income$815.6M4$796.9M5$840.3M6$845.7M6$1.06B6
Operating cash flow$1.2B7$1.1B8$1.04B9$1.05B9$1.2B9
Capital expenditure$15.9M10$22.1M11$18.6M12$24.2M12$26.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.19B7$1.08B8$1.02B9$1.03B9$1.17B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$271.9M13$196M14$537.7M15$506.2M16$1.8B16
Diluted shares134.1M126.3M118.3M113.4M109.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$262.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$96.16
Free cash flow it threw off
$106.7
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $262.21 of net worth that earned you $96.16 and generated $106.7 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
44% avg · 5y
FY21 27%FY22 29%FY23 37%FY24 37%FY25 87%

It earned about 44% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $79.22 and $150.03 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$139.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.03B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$150.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$1.03B
Earnings Power Value
$79.22
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$840.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75.34
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $150.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%$150.03
Base0.0%$150.03
Bull5.0%$182.38

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000867 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001932 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001196 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000867 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001932 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001196 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000867 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001932 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000867 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001932 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-122355 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-000867 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-001932 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)