CHEGG, INC
CHGGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
CHEGG, INC earns about -360% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.47 and $6.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $776.3M1 | $766.9M2 | $716.3M3 | $617.6M3 | $376.9M3 |
| Net income | −$1.46M4 | $266.6M5 | $18.2M6 | −$837.1M6 | −$103.4M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $273.2M7 | $255.7M8 | $246.2M9 | $125.2M9 | $15.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $94.2M10 | $103.1M11 | $83.1M12 | $75M12 | $28.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $179M7 | $152.6M8 | $163.1M9 | $50.3M9 | −$12.6M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $854.1M13 | $473.7M14 | $135.8M15 | $161.5M15 | $31.1M15 |
| Diluted shares | 141.3M | 149.9M | 128.6M | 103.3M | 107.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $11.13 of net worth that earned you −$9.62 and generated −$1.18 of cash last year.
It earned about -360% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.47 and $6.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$50.3M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$50.3M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $6.97 |
| Base | 0.0% | $6.97 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $8.59 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)