CHEGG, INC

CHGGdata completeness 88%14 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

CHEGG, INC earns about -360% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 24% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.47 and $6.97 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$776.3M1$766.9M2$716.3M3$617.6M3$376.9M3
Net income−$1.46M4$266.6M5$18.2M6−$837.1M6−$103.4M6
Operating cash flow$273.2M7$255.7M8$246.2M9$125.2M9$15.5M9
Capital expenditure$94.2M10$103.1M11$83.1M12$75M12$28.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$179M7$152.6M8$163.1M9$50.3M9−$12.6M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$854.1M13$473.7M14$135.8M15$161.5M15$31.1M15
Diluted shares141.3M149.9M128.6M103.3M107.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$11.13
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$9.62
Free cash flow it threw off
−$1.18
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $11.13 of net worth that earned you −$9.62 and generated −$1.18 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-360% avg · 5y
FY21 -0%FY22 15%FY23 3%FY24 -1726%FY25 -89%

It earned about -360% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−24% shares · 5y

Share count is down 24% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.47 and $6.97 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$6.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$50.3M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$6.97
Base0.0%$6.97
Bull5.0%$8.59

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001364954-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001364954-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001364954-26-000021 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)