MeritValue

Chefs' Warehouse, Inc.

CHEFdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Chefs' Warehouse, Inc. earns about 3% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.09 and $8.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.75B1$2.61B2$3.43B3$3.79B3$4.15B3
Net income−$4.92M4$27.8M5$34.6M6$55.5M6$72.4M6
Operating cash flow−$19.9M7$23.1M8$61.6M9$153.1M9$129.2M9
Capital expenditure$38.8M10$45.8M11$57.4M12$49.5M12$41.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$58.7M7−$22.7M8$4.21M9$103.6M9$87.8M9
Total debt$792M13$1.34B14$1.43B15$1.38B16$1.4B16
Cash & equivalents$115.2M17$158.8M18$49.9M19$114.7M20$121M20
Diluted shares36.7M38.7M45.6M46.0M46.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$131.37
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$15.73
Free cash flow it threw off
$19.08
Debt you’d be carrying
$304.13

10 shares is a claim on $131.37 of net worth that earned you $15.73 and generated $19.08 of cash last year, against $304.13 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
3% avg · 5y
FY21 1%FY22 4%FY23 3%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned about 3% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 77% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.09 and $8.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$8.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$87.8M
Earnings Power Value
$7.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$34.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$22.28
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.09
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$0.51
Base5.0%$6.09
Bull10.0%$13.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-23-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-24 · accession 0001517175-23-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-30 · accession 0001517175-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-29 · accession 0001517175-25-000002 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-27 · accession 0001517175-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)