MeritValue

CHEMED CORP

CHEdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

CHEMED CORP earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 9% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $192.46 and $584.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.26B1$1.2B2$1.32B2$1.53B2$2.53B3
Net income$268.6M4$249.6M5$272.5M6$302M6$265.2M6
Operating cash flow$308.6M7$309.9M8$330.3M9$417.5M9$388.3M9
Capital expenditure$58.7M10$57.3M11$56.9M12$49.5M12$62.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)$249.9M7$252.6M8$273.4M9$368M9$325.5M9
Total debt$370M13$195M14———
Cash & equivalents$32.9M15$74.1M16$264M17$178.4M18$74.5M18
Diluted shares15.9M15.1M15.2M15.2M14.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$677.32
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$183.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$225.09
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $677.32 of net worth that earned you $183.43 and generated $225.09 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
30% avg · 5y
FY21 28%FY22 28%FY23 33%FY24 32%FY25 29%

It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−9% shares · 5y

Share count is down 9% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 47% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $192.46 and $584.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$584.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth8.8%
  • fcfBase$325.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$474.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth8.8%
  • fcfBase$325.5M
Earnings Power Value
$192.46
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$268.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$167.18
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years8.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $474.31
The three cases
Bear0.0%$326.75
Base8.8%$474.31
Bull13.8%$580.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 8.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000038 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000020 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-23-000057 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001562762-23-000057 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001562762-24-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001562762-25-000038 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001562762-26-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)